BJ Fogg's Tips for New Year's Resolutions

Last January, I posted “3 Achievable Resolutions for Weight Loss.” So I was interested to read the Wall Street Journal op-ed BJ Fogg wrote to promote his new book Tiny Habits: The Small Changes That Change Everything. (I haven’t read the book itself.) I have some hope that his approach may help you in implementing some of the things I have recommended in my diet and health posts—such as going off sugar. (On that, also see “Letting Go of Sugar.”)

Here is the claim BJ Fogg makes for his approach:

It isn’t primarily repetition over a long period that creates habits; it’s the emotion that you attach to them from the start. Data from the most recent 5,200 people to complete a five-day course of our program showed that more than half were able to instill habits in five days or less.

He lays out the basics of his approach as follows. All of the following that is indented are BJ Fogg’s words; I have rearranged and added indentation, bullets and bolding:

It turns out that there is a formula for any successful shift in behavior. … To instill a habit,

1. the first thing you need is motivation: Pick a behavior that you want to do rather than one you merely feel obligated to do.

  • … don’t think you have to create motivation. Choose habits that you already are eager to adopt.

2. Second, you need to be able to do it: Make the change simple and small at first.

  • a busy mom named Amy, who needed to manage distractions and stay focused on essential tasks. The habit she initially designed with our help was just to write one must-do task on a Post-it Note and stick it on her car dashboard, prompted by each day’s kindergarten drop-off. She didn’t even have to do the task itself at first; the initial habit was all about setting priorities. 

  • One of my favorite projects was at a research hospital where the challenge was to tackle the problem of nurse burnout, a large and growing issue in health care. …

    I heard firsthand just how difficult it was for them to do basic things like drink enough water, eat regularly, and even get a full night’s sleep. So we worked together on creating healthy habits like “After I open my computer, I will take a sip of water,” or “After I answer the call light, I will take a deep breath.”

3. Third, you need a personal prompt: Identify a way to reliably trigger the behavior.

  • The best way to prompt a new habit is to anchor it to an existing routine in your life, whether it’s flushing the toilet, turning on the coffee pot in the morning or buckling your seat belt.

  • … every time he brushed his teeth, he would do two push-ups, then hold a “plank’’ position for just five seconds.

4. Finally, you need to celebrate your new habit, so that your brain associates it with positive feelings.

  • As you try each new habit, celebrate immediately. Cause yourself to feel good in that exact moment, whether it’s an inward “Good job!” or an outward fist pump.

If your goal is going off of sugar, an example of starting small would be to stop drinking sugary drinks such as soft drinks or juice; you could replace them with coffee or tea or flavored sparkling water. (See “In Praise of Flavored Sparkling Water.” On the trouble with juice, see “Forget Calorie Counting; It's the Insulin Index, Stupid.” On why not to substitute soft drinks with nonsugar sweeteners, see “Which Nonsugar Sweeteners are OK? An Insulin-Index Perspective.”)

An even easier goal to get you started toward better health would be to eat an avocado a day, one way or another, except on days when you are fasting. (See “In Praise of Avocados.”)

For annotated links to other posts on diet and health, see:

Bill Dudley on the Fed's New Floor System for Establishing Its Target Nominal Interest Rate

This should be taken seriously; Bill Dudley was the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a position in the Federal Reserve System second in importance only to the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board) from 2009–2018).

Note: To explain the new and old approaches to establishing an interest rate, I wrote this post for my students:

The Federalist Papers #4 B: National Defense Will Be Stronger if the States are United

In the first half of The Federalist Papers #4 John Jay argues that the states must be prepared to defend themselves from other nations. (See “The Federalist Papers #4 A: The States Must Be Prepared to Defend against Aggression by Other Nations.”) In the second half he argues that they will be better able to defend themselves if they are united. His main arguments are these:

  1. A larger nation has more military leaders to choose from, and so can typically get better leaders.

  2. Coordinated preparations are valuable.

  3. A united front allows for the internalization of externalities between the states in thinking through war aims (as reflected ultimately in the treaties the resolve wars).

  4. A larger nation can have a larger military that it can concentrate at the most important place at any point in a conflict.

  5. Unity of command is valuable.

  6. In a war, states might well betray one another if they are not under one government.

  7. If not united under one government squabbling among the states could make both the prosecution of war and the establishment of peace much more difficult.

  8. The strength that comes from being united matters not only for victory, but also for deterring war.

I consider the second half of The Federalist Papers #4 to being with these two paragraphs pointing to the value of a strong national defense:

The people of America are aware that inducements to war may arise out of these circumstances, as well as from others not so obvious at present, and that whenever such inducements may find fit time and opportunity for operation, pretenses to color and justify them will not be wanting. Wisely, therefore, do they consider union and a good national government as necessary to put and keep them in SUCH A SITUATION as, instead of INVITING war, will tend to repress and discourage it. That situation consists in the best possible state of defense, and necessarily depends on the government, the arms, and the resources of the country.

As the safety of the whole is the interest of the whole, and cannot be provided for without government, either one or more or many, let us inquire whether one good government is not, relative to the object in question, more competent than any other given number whatever.

Then, John Jay lays out in detail the arguments I list above. Here they are, with my summary of the argument in bold before John Jay’s argument in full on that point:

1. A larger nation has more military leaders to choose from, and so can typically get better leaders.

One government can collect and avail itself of the talents and experience of the ablest men, in whatever part of the Union they may be found.

2. Coordinated preparations are valuable.

It can move on uniform principles of policy. It can harmonize, assimilate, and protect the several parts and members, and extend the benefit of its foresight and precautions to each.

3. A united front allows for the internalization of externalities between the states in thinking through war aims (as reflected ultimately in the treaties the resolve wars).

In the formation of treaties, it will regard the interest of the whole, and the particular interests of the parts as connected with that of the whole.

4. A larger nation can have a larger military that it can concentrate at the most important place at any point in a conflict.

It can apply the resources and power of the whole to the defense of any particular part, and that more easily and expeditiously than State governments or separate confederacies can possibly do, for want of concert and unity of system.

5. Unity of command is valuable.

It can place the militia under one plan of discipline, and, by putting their officers in a proper line of subordination to the Chief Magistrate, will, as it were, consolidate them into one corps, and thereby render them more efficient than if divided into thirteen or into three or four distinct independent companies.

What would the militia of Britain be if the English militia obeyed the government of England, if the Scotch militia obeyed the government of Scotland, and if the Welsh militia obeyed the government of Wales? Suppose an invasion; would those three governments (if they agreed at all) be able, with all their respective forces, to operate against the enemy so effectually as the single government of Great Britain would?

We have heard much of the fleets of Britain, and the time may come, if we are wise, when the fleets of America may engage attention. But if one national government, had not so regulated the navigation of Britain as to make it a nursery for seamen--if one national government had not called forth all the national means and materials for forming fleets, their prowess and their thunder would never have been celebrated. Let England have its navigation and fleet--let Scotland have its navigation and fleet--let Wales have its navigation and fleet--let Ireland have its navigation and fleet--let those four of the constituent parts of the British empire be under four independent governments, and it is easy to perceive how soon they would each dwindle into comparative insignificance.

6. In a war, states might well betray one another if they are not under one government.

Apply these facts to our own case. Leave America divided into thirteen or, if you please, into three or four independent governments--what armies could they raise and pay--what fleets could they ever hope to have? If one was attacked, would the others fly to its succor, and spend their blood and money in its defense? Would there be no danger of their being flattered into neutrality by its specious promises, or seduced by a too great fondness for peace to decline hazarding their tranquillity and present safety for the sake of neighbors, of whom perhaps they have been jealous, and whose importance they are content to see diminished? Although such conduct would not be wise, it would, nevertheless, be natural. The history of the states of Greece, and of other countries, abounds with such instances, and it is not improbable that what has so often happened would, under similar circumstances, happen again.

7. If not united under one government squabbling among the states could make both the prosecution of war and the establishment of peace much more difficult.

But admit that they might be willing to help the invaded State or confederacy. How, and when, and in what proportion shall aids of men and money be afforded? Who shall command the allied armies, and from which of them shall he receive his orders? Who shall settle the terms of peace, and in case of disputes what umpire shall decide between them and compel acquiescence? Various difficulties and inconveniences would be inseparable from such a situation; whereas one government, watching over the general and common interests, and combining and directing the powers and resources of the whole, would be free from all these embarrassments, and conduce far more to the safety of the people.

8. The strength that comes from being united matters not only for victory, but also for deterring war.

But whatever may be our situation, whether firmly united under one national government, or split into a number of confederacies, certain it is, that foreign nations will know and view it exactly as it is; and they will act toward us accordingly. If they see that our national government is efficient and well administered, our trade prudently regulated, our militia properly organized and disciplined, our resources and finances discreetly managed, our credit re-established, our people free, contented, and united, they will be much more disposed to cultivate our friendship than provoke our resentment. If, on the other hand, they find us either destitute of an effectual government (each State doing right or wrong, as to its rulers may seem convenient), or split into three or four independent and probably discordant republics or confederacies, one inclining to Britain, another to France, and a third to Spain, and perhaps played off against each other by the three, what a poor, pitiful figure will America make in their eyes! How liable would she become not only to their contempt but to their outrage, and how soon would dear-bought experience proclaim that when a people or family so divide, it never fails to be against themselves.

PUBLIUS.

There is a direct relevance of John Jay’s arguments to our situation today. China is rising in power. It is important for the world to have an adequate counterweight to that power. Allies are valuable, but John Jay’s arguments point out why it is more valuable to have the United States itself be larger and more powerful so it can act as a better counterweight. Here, “larger” doesn’t mean more territory, it means having a larger population that can support a larger total economy and therefore support a larger military if necessary.

Fortunately, the United States can easily become larger in population because many, many people—including many highly skilled people as well as many out of “your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe freewho would gladly serve in the US military in order to be able to become citizens of our fair republic. Unfortunately, in in some quarter, there are low levels of tolerance for the cultural differences of many of those who were born outside the US. I hope that Americans soon wake up to the importance for our national security and world stability of allowing more immigration to the US in order to bolster American power. Of course, assimilation to an important degree is crucial in order to make sure that immigrants do, in fact, bolster American power. But the US has a stellar record of assimilating newcomers and gaining their loyalty. On the value of allowing more immigration in order to keep up with China’s power, see

(There is also a moral dimension to allowing more immigration. On that, see "‘The Hunger Games’ Is Hardly Our Future--It's Already Here” and “The Message of ‘Sal Tlay Ka Siti’.”)

Here are links to my other posts on The Federalist Papers so far:

2019's Most Popular Posts

The "Key Posts" link in navigation at the top of my blog lists all important posts through the end of 2016. Along with "2017's Most Popular Posts" and “2018's Most Popular Posts,” this is intended as a complement to that list. (Also, my most popular storified Twitter discussions are here, and you can see other recent posts by clicking on the Archive link at the top of my blog.) Continuing this tradition, I give links to the most popular posts from 2019 below into six groups: popular new posts in 2019 on diet and health, popular new posts in 2019 on political philosophy, popular new posts in 2019 on other topics, and popular older posts in those three categories. I will put in the 2019 pageviews for each post when someone went specifically to that post.

I am pleased to be able to report 529,822 Google Analytics pageviews in the first half of 2019—over 10,000 pageviews per week. Of these, 38,858 were pageviews for my blog homepage. 

New Posts in 2019 on Diet and Health

  1. Miles Kimball on Diet and Health: A Reader's Guide 2,577

  2. 3 Achievable Resolutions for Weight Loss 2,026

  3. Kevin D. Hall and Juen Guo: Why it is so Hard to Lose Weight and so Hard to Keep it Off 1,930

  4. David Ludwig: It Takes Time to Adapt to a Lowcarb, Highfat Diet 1,410

  5. Lisa Drayer: Is Fasting the Fountain of Youth? 1,340

  6. Reexamining Steve Gundry's `The Plant Paradox’ 1,143

  7. Layne Norton Discusses the Stephan Guyenet vs. Gary Taubes Debate (a Debate on Joe Rogan’s Podcast) 1,087

  8. On Exercise and Weight Loss 1,050

  9. Andreas Michalsen on Fasting 779

  10. Don't Tar Fasting by those of Normal or High Weight with the Brush of Anorexia 700

  11. Data on Asian Genes that Discourage Alcohol Consumption Explode the Myth that a Little Alcohol is Good for your Health 538

  12. After Gastric Bypass Surgery, Insulin Goes Down Before Weight Loss has Time to Happen 426

  13. How Low Insulin Opens a Way to Escape Dieting Hell 379

  14. Hints About What Can Be Done to Reduce Alzheimer's Risk 341

  15. The Four Food Groups Revisited 339

  16. Eggs May Be a Type of Food You Should Eat Sparingly, But Don't Blame Cholesterol Yet 335

  17. Increasing Returns to Duration in Fasting 333

  18. On 'Flipping the Metabolic Switch: Understanding and Applying Health Benefits of Fasting' by Stephen D. Anton et al. 330

  19. How Not Getting Enough Sleep Messes You Up, Part 1 320

  20. David Ludwig, Walter Willett, Jeff Volek and Marian Neuhouser: Controversies and Consensus on Fat vs. Carbs 310

  21. Live Your Life So You Don't Need Much Self-Control 299

  22. Freakonomics: The Story of Bananas 292

  23. Jonathan Shaw: Could Inflammation Be the Cause of Myriad Chronic Diseases? 291

  24. A Low-Glycemic-Index Vegan Diet as a Moderately-Low-Insulin-Index Diet 281

  25. Mental Retirement: Use It or Lose It—Susann Rohwedder and Robert Willis 270

  26. The Carbohydrate-Insulin Model Wars 257

  27. Maintaining Weight Loss 255

  28. Christmas Dinner 2018 with the Kimballs in Colorado 237

  29. Eating Highly Processed Food is Correlated with Death 234

  30. The Benefits of Fasting are Looking So Clear People Try to Mimic Fasting without Fasting 225

  31. Framingham State Food Study: Lowcarb Diets Make Us Burn More Calories 221

  32. How Weight Loss Happens: Mass In/Mass Out Revisited 210

  33. In Praise of Flavored Sparkling Water 201

  34. Biohacking: Nutrition as Technology 199

  35. On the Epistemology of Diet and Health: Miles Refuses to `Stay in His Lane’ 196

  36. Crafting Simple, Accurate Messages about Complex Problems 173

  37. Sutton, Beyl, Early, Cefalu, Ravussin and Peterson: Early Time-Restricted Feeding Improves Insulin Sensitivity, Blood Pressure, and Oxidative Stress Even without Weight Loss in Men with Prediabetes 173

  38. Nutritionally, Not All Apple Varieties Are Alike 171

  39. Cost Benefit Analysis Applied to Neti Pot Use 157

  40. Less Than 6 or More than 9 Hours of Sleep Signals a Higher Risk of Heart Attacks 153

  41. Fighting the Common Cold 148

  42. Critiquing `All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality with Low-Carbohydrate Diets' by Mohsen Mazidi, Niki Katsiki, Dimitri P. Mikhailidis, Naveed Sattar and Maciej Banach 145

  43. What is the Evidence on Dietary Fat? 134

  44. How Unhealthy are Red and Processed Meat? 129

  45. Should the Typical Person be Restricting Salt Intake? 123

  46. Is 10,000 Steps a Day More Than is Necessary for Health? 121

  47. Should Those Whose Main Symptom is Chest Pains Get Stent or Bypass Surgery? 116

  48. Does Reducing Saturated Fat Reduce Cardiovascular Disease? 115

  49. Cancer Cells Love Sugar; That’s How PET Scans for Cancer Work 108

  50. Another Problem with Processed Food: Propionate 96

New Posts in 2019 on Political Philosophy

  1. John Locke's Argument for Limited Government 1,647

  2. John Locke on Why the Executive and Legislative Power Should Be Separated, but the Executive and Foreign Policy Power Should Be Combined 1,233

  3. John Locke: How to Recognize a Tyrant 1,133

  4. Governments Long Established Should Not—and to a Good Approximation Will Not—Be Changed for Light and Transient Causes 603

  5. John Locke: How to Resist Tyrants without Causing Anarchy 584

  6. John Locke on the Supremacy of the People, the Supremacy of the Legislature over the Executive, and the Power of the Executive to Deal with Rotten Boroughs 344

  7. On Despotism 328

  8. The Federalist Papers #1: Alexander Hamilton's Plea for Reasoned Debate 200

  9. Getting Away with Doing Good 165

  10. The People Have the Right to Erect a New Government When the Previous Government Betrays the Trust It Has Been Given 161

  11. John Locke on Monarchs (Or Presidents) Who Destroy a Constitution 159

  12. Miles Kimball on John Locke's Second Treatise 155

  13. John Locke: The Obligation to Obey the Law Does Not Apply to Laws Promulgated by Invaders and Usurpers Who Do Not Have the Consent of the Governed 132

  14. John Locke Against Tyranny 120

  15. The Federalist Papers #2 A: John Jay on the Idea of America 111

  16. John Locke: Usurpation is a Kind of Domestic Conquest, with this Difference, that an Usurper Can Never Have Right on His Side 107

  17. John Locke: The People are the Judge of the Rulers 107

  18. John Locke: If Rebellion is a Sin, It is a Sin Committed Most Often by Those in Power 97

  19. John Locke: Bad Rulers May Be Removed 90

New Posts in 2019 on Other Topics

  1. In Honor of Alan Krueger 8,801

  2. Adding a Variable Measured with Error to a Regression Only Partially Controls for that Variable 3,559

  3. The Costs of Inflation 2,476

  4. 2019 First Half's Most Popular Posts 2,636

  5. Who Leaves Mormonism? 1,160

  6. Supply and Demand for the Monetary Base: How the Fed Currently Determines Interest Rates 1,016

  7. A Liberal Turn in the Mormon Church 818

  8. Ruchir Agarwal and Miles Kimball—Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide 813

  9. Christian Kimball on Middle-Way Mormonism 427

  10. New Evidence on the Genetics of Homosexuality 410

  11. Deeper Learning in Macroeconomics 405

  12. An Optical Illusion: Nativity Scene or Two T-Rex's Fighting over a Table Saw? 383

  13. How Negative Interest Rates Affect the Economy 348

  14. Hessler, Pöpping, Hollstein, Ohlenburg, Arnemann, Massoth, Seidel, Zarbock and Wenk: Availability of Cookies During an Academic Course Session Affects Evaluation of Teaching 324

  15. Co-Active Coaching as a Tool for Maximizing Utility—Getting Where You Want in Life 312

  16. On Being a Copy of Someone's Mind 303

  17. In Honor of Martin Weitzman 303

  18. Chris Kimball: Grief in the Journey 301

  19. Against Narcissism 295

  20. What Monetary Policy Can and Can't Do 291

  21. Measuring Learning Outcomes from Getting an Economics Degree 256

  22. Chris Kimball on `A Liberal Turn in the Mormon Church' 235

  23. Against the Gold Standard 234

  24. Claudia Sahm's Anti-Recession Rule 226

  25. Reza Moghadam Flags 'Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions' in the Financial Times 225

  26. On Habit Formation 224

  27. The Economist: Why is Chicken So Cheap? 221

  28. Deeper Negative Rates Can Ward Off Secular Stagnation 216

  29. Joshua Goldstein and Staffan Qvist: The Argument for Expanding Nuclear Power 215

  30. Marriage 103 212

  31. Will Your Uploaded Mind Still Be You? —Michael Graziano 212

  32. Q&A on the Idea of a US Sovereign Wealth Fund 206

  33. Chris Kimball: The Language of Doubt 199

  34. Andy Matuschak: Why Books Don't Work (linkpost) 197

  35. Give Central Banks Independence and New Political Pressures to Balance the Old Ones 189

  36. National Well-Being Indexes and Goodhart’s Law 174

  37. Teens are Too Suspicious for Anything But the Truth about Drugs to Work 167

  38. Job Posting for a Full-Time Research Assistant with a Bachelor's Degree to Help with the Research Needed to Build a National Well-Being Index, Starting Late Summer 2020 162

  39. Kenneth W. Phifer: Is Death Meaningful? 157

  40. Why a Positive Aggregate Demand Shock Should Make the Stock Market Go Down If the Fed is Doing Its Job Right 157

  41. Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs is Harder than You Think—Jacob Westfall and Tal Yarkoni 146

  42. Andrew Biggs and Miles Kimball Debate Retirement Savings Policy 142

  43. Larry Summers Says the Fed Should Move Fast to Cut Rates 140

  44. Dan Ariely: The Power of Morning, Time Together and Positive Feedback 133

  45. Peter Conti-Brown: Can Trump Fire Jerome Powell? 132

  46. Donald Trump May Finally Get People to Realize the Fed is Responsible for What Happens with the Business Cycle, Not the President or Congress 131

  47. Christof Koch: Will Machines Ever Become Conscious? 130

  48. Noah Smith on Blocking Twitter Trolls 123

  49. FocusEconomics: Predictions for the Global Economy in 2019 from 13 Experts 117

  50. Miles Kimball's Presentation on Negative Interest Rate Policy to the National Association of Business Economists 117

  51. Prospect Magazine: The World's Top 50 Thinkers in 2019 117

  52. Can Religion Reduce Suicide? 113

  53. Ken Rogoff Defends a Robust Negative Rate Policy at Hoover 112

  54. Alexander Trentin Interviews Miles Kimball about Macroeconomic Stabilization: Negative Rates and Sovereign Wealth Funds 111

  55. Brian Flaxman—A Tale of Bipartisanship and Financial Interests: The Taxpayer First Act of 2019 109

  56. Silvio Gesell's Plan for Negative Nominal Interest Rates Meets the Mormons 103

  57. Where is Social Science Genetics Headed? 99

  58. FocusEconomics: How and When will the Next Financial Crisis Happen?—26 Experts Weigh In 96

  59. One Nation 96

  60. In Honor of Marvin Goodfriend 93

  61. JP Koning on Ill-Considered Government Policies Standing in the Way of the Emergence of the Digital Cash that Can Eliminate Any Lower Bound on Interest Rates 93

  62. On the Effability of the Ineffable 93

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Diet and Health

  1. Forget Calorie Counting; It's the Insulin Index, Stupid  51,454

  2. How Fasting Can Starve Cancer Cells, While Leaving Normal Cells Unharmed  32,302

  3. Which Nonsugar Sweeteners are OK? An Insulin-Index Perspective 15,533

  4. Why a Low-Insulin-Index Diet Isn't Exactly a 'Lowcarb' Diet  12,731

  5. Whole Milk Is Healthy; Skim Milk Less So  10,853

  6. Using the Glycemic Index as a Supplement to the Insulin Index  7,507

  7. Obesity Is Always and Everywhere an Insulin Phenomenon  5,356

  8. The Case Against Sugar: Stephan Guyenet vs. Gary Taubes  5,306

  9. Evidence that High Insulin Levels Lead to Weight Gain 4,610

  10. Stop Counting Calories; It's the Clock that Counts  4,566

  11. What Steven Gundry's Book 'The Plant Paradox' Adds to the Principles of a Low-Insulin-Index Diet 4015

  12. Intense Dark Chocolate: A Review  2,920

  13. Jason Fung's Single Best Weight Loss Tip: Don't Eat All the Time 2,318

  14. Five Books That Have Changed My Life  2,144

  15. The Keto Food Pyramid 1,951

  16. Meat Is Amazingly Nutritious—But Is It Amazingly Nutritious for Cancer Cells, Too?  1,663

  17. Why You Should Worry about Cancer Promotion by Diet as Much as You Worry about Cancer Initiation by Carcinogens 1,505

  18. Our Delusions about 'Healthy' Snacks—Nuts to That! 1,441

  19. My Annual Anti-Cancer Fast 1,349

  20. Jason Fung: Dietary Fat is Innocent of the Charges Leveled Against It 1,311

  21. 4 Propositions on Weight Loss 1,186

  22. Letting Go of Sugar 1,139

  23. Vindicating Gary Taubes: A Smackdown of Seth Yoder 1,132

  24. My Giant Salad 1,088

  25. Good News! Cancer Cells are Metabolically Handicapped 1,021

  26. Best Health Guide: 10 Surprising Changes When You Quit Sugar 960

  27. The Problem with Processed Food 933

  28. Exorcising the Devil in the Milk 832

  29. Yes, Sugar is Really Bad for You 809

  30. Which Is Worse for You: Sugar or Fat? 689

  31. Sugar as a Slow Poison 654

  32. Salt Is Not the Nutritional Evil It Is Made Out to Be 613

  33. How Sugar, Too Much Protein, Inflammation and Injury Could Drive Epigenetic Cellular Evolution Toward Cancer 537

  34. Diseases of Civilization 526

  35. 'Is Milk Ok?' Revisited 513

  36. The Case Against the Case Against Sugar: Seth Yoder vs. Gary Taubes 508

  37. A Barycentric Autobiography 400

  38. Is Milk OK? 385

  39. Carola Binder—Why You Should Get More Vitamin D: The Recommended Daily Allowance for Vitamin D Was Underestimated Due to Statistical Illiteracy 381

  40. Mass In/Mass Out: A Satire of Calories In/Calories Out 373

  41. In Praise of Avocados 337

  42. Nina Teicholz on the Bankruptcy of Counting Calories 328

  43. Anthony Komaroff: The Microbiome and Risk for Obesity and Diabetes 316

  44. How Sugar Makes People Hangry 264

  45. Eating on the Road 257

  46. Hints for Healthy Eating from the Nurses’ Health Study 251

  47. Black Bean Brownies 226

  48. Evidence that Gut Bacteria Affect the Brain 199

  49. The Trouble with Most Psychological Approaches to Weight Loss: They Assume the Biology is Obvious, When It Isn't 176

  50. A Conversation with David Brazel on Obesity Research 158

  51. Heidi Turner, Michael Schwartz and Kristen Domonell on How Bad Sugar Is 134

  52. Carola Binder: The Obesity Code and Economists as General Practitioners 124

  53. Gary Taubes Makes His Case to Nick Gillespie: How Big Sugar and a Misguided Government Wrecked the American Diet 124

  54. Magic Bullets vs. Multifaceted Interventions for Economic Stimulus, Economic Development and Weight Loss 114

  55. The Heavy Non-Health Consequences of Heaviness 106

  56. Does Sugar Make Dietary Fat Less OK? 93

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Political Philosophy

  1. The Social Contract According to John Locke  47,916

  2. John Locke: Freedom is Life; Slavery Can Be Justified Only as a Reprieve from Deserved Death  4,398

  3. John Stuart Mill's Brief for Freedom of Speech  4,257

  4. John Locke on Punishment 2,793

  5. On John Locke's Labor Theory of Property 2,747

  6. John Locke's Argument for Majority Rule 2,241

  7. John Locke: The Purpose of Law Is Freedom 2,168

  8. John Locke's State of Nature and State of War 1,783

  9. Liberty and the Golden Rule 1,712

  10. John Stuart Mill on Freedom from Religion 1,490

  11. On the Achilles Heel of John Locke's Second Treatise: Slavery and Land Ownership 1,451

  12. John Stuart Mill’s Vigorous Advocacy of Education Vouchers 1,168

  13. Freedom Under Law Means All Are Subject to the Same Laws 1,122

  14. John Locke: The Only Legitimate Power of Governments is to Articulate the Law of Nature 1,121

  15. John Locke: When the Police and Courts Can't or Won't Take Care of Things, People Have the Right to Take the Law Into Their Own Hands 1,086

  16. John Locke on Legitimate Political Power 1,046

  17. Human Beings as Social—and Trading—Animals 1,026

  18. John Stuart Mill’s Defense of Freedom 796

  19. John Locke on the Equality of Humans 780

  20. John Locke Against Natural Hierarchy 744

  21. John Locke: The Public Good 720

  22. Democracy is Not Freedom 706

  23. John Locke: Government by the Consent of the Governed Often Began Out of Respect for Someone Trusted to Govern 699

  24. John Locke: Democracy, Oligarchy, Hereditary Monarchy, Elective Monarchy and Mixed Forms of Government 690

  25. John Locke's Smackdown of Robert Filmer: Being a Father Doesn't Make Any Man a King 623

  26. Cass Sunstein on the Rule of Law 584

  27. John Locke: People Must Not Be Judges in Their Own Cases 584

  28. John Locke: Legitimate Taxation and other Appropriation of Property by the Government is Limited as to Quantity, Procedure and Purpose 521

  29. John Stuart Mill on Balancing Christian Morality with the Wisdom of the Greeks and Romans 500

  30. The Metaphor of a Nation as a Family 466

  31. John Stuart Mill: In Praise of Eccentricity 459

  32. John Stuart Mill: In the Parent-Child Relationship, It is the Children that Have Rights, Not the Parents 457

  33. John Stuart Mill: Two Maxims for Liberty 454

  34. John Stuart Mill on Freedom of Thought 434

  35. An Experiment with Equality of Outcome: The Case of Jamestown 431

  36. John Locke Explains 'Lord of the Flies' 416

  37. John Locke: The Right to Enforce the Law of Nature Does Not Depend on Any Social Contract 403

  38. John Stuart Mill's Brief for Individuality 381

  39. John Locke Treats the Bible as an Authority on Slavery 349

  40. John Stuart Mill on the Protection of "Noble Lies" from Criticism 332

  41. John Stuart Mill on the Role of Custom in Human Life 324

  42. Social Liberty 317

  43. John Stuart Mill Applies the Principles of Liberty 316

  44. John Locke: We Are All Born Free 291

  45. John Stuart Mill’s Brief for the Limits of the Authority of Society over the Individual 282

  46. John Stuart Mill on Public and Private Actions 282

  47. John Locke: The Law of Nature Requires Maturity to Discern 274

  48. John Stuart Mill on Freedom of Contract 273

  49. John Stuart Mill on the Chief Interest of the History of Mankind: The Love of Liberty and Improvement vs. Custom 271

  50. John Locke and the Share of Land 267

  51. John Stuart Mill on the Gravity of Divorce 261

  52. John Stuart Mill on Rising Above Mediocrity 259

  53. John Locke: Defense against the Black Hats is the Origin of the State 247

  54. John Stuart Mill: The Central Government Should Be Slow to Overrule, but Quick to Denounce Bad Actions of Local Governments 246

  55. John Locke: By Natural Law, Husbands Have No Power Over Their Wives 235

  56. John Stuart Mill: How Laws Against Self-Harm Backfire 232

  57. John Locke: Lions and Wolves and Enemies, Oh My 229

  58. John Stuart Mill on Sins of Omission 228

  59. John Locke: The Law Must Apply to Rulers, Too 215

  60. John Stuart Mill’s Roadmap for Freedom 214

  61. John Stuart Mill on the Rich and the Elite 209

  62. John Stuart Mill on the Historical Origins of Liberty 206

  63. John Locke: No One is Above the Law, which Must Be Established and Promulgated and Designed for the Good of the People; Taxes and Governmental Succession Require Approval of Elected Representatives 204

  64. John Stuart Mill on Benevolent Dictators 194

  65. John Stuart Mill on the Sources of Prejudice About What Other People Should Do 192

  66. John Stuart Mill on Having a Day of Rest and Recreation 187

  67. John Locke on the Mandate of Heaven 180

  68. The Rise and Fall of Venice 180

  69. John Stuart Mill on Being Offended at Other People's Opinions or Private Conduct 169

  70. John Locke Off Base with His Assumption That There Was Plenty of Land at the Time of Acquisition 167

  71. John Stuart Mill on Puritanism 167

  72. John Locke: Property in the State of Nature 166

  73. John Locke: Theft as the Little Murder 164

  74. John Stuart Mill on China's Technological Lost Centuries 161

  75. Vigilantes in the State of Nature 155

  76. Paul Finkelman: The Monster of Monticello 152

  77. John Stuart Mill's Argument Against Political Correctness 148

  78. John Stuart Mill’s Defense of Freedom of Religion for Mormons as an Argument for Chartering Libertarian Enclaves 145

  79. Democratic Injustice 144

  80. John Locke: Law Is Only Legitimate When It Is Founded on the Law of Nature 142

  81. John Locke: Rivalry in Consumption Makes Private Property Unavoidable 132

  82. John Locke Looks for a Better Way than Believing in the Divine Right of Kings or Power to the Strong 131

  83. In Praise of Trolls 124

  84. John Stuart Mill: People Should Be Allowed to Govern Their Own Lives Because They Care More and Know More about Themselves Than Anyone Else Does 120

  85. Edmund Burke's Wisdom 119

  86. John Stuart Mill on Humans vs. the Lesser Robots 119

  87. If the Justice System Does Not Try to Deliver Justice, We Are in a State of War 113

  88. John Stuart Mill: We Are Ethically Responsible for the Harm We Do to Others, Even When That Harm Stems from First Doing Harm to Ourselves 111

  89. John Stuart Mill on the Need to Make the Argument for Freedom of Speech 107

  90. Genius Can Only Breathe Freely in an Atmosphere of Freedom 107

  91. John Locke on Diminishing Marginal Utility as a Limit to Legitimately Claiming Works of Nature as Property 100

  92. John Stuart Mill: Making the Government More Powerful than Necessary is Inimical to Freedom 99

  93. John Stuart Mill and C. S. Lewis on Originality 97

  94. John Locke: Thinking of Mothers and Fathers On a Par Undercuts a Misleading Autocratic Metaphor 96

  95. John Stuart Mill on Raising the Next Generation 94

  96. On Consent Beginning from a Free and Equal Condition 90

Older Posts with Continuing Popularity on Other Topics

  1. The 7 Principles of Unitarian Universalism 14,356

  2. William Strauss and Neil Howe's American Prophecy in 'The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny' 3,075

  3. William Graham Sumner, Social Darwinist  2,394

  4. Five Books That Have Changed My Life  2,144

  5. Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy: Expansionary Monetary Policy Does Not Raise the Budget Deficit 2,067

  6. How and Why to Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound: A Reader’s Guide  1,945

  7. The Medium-Run Natural Interest Rate and the Short-Run Natural Interest Rate 1,806

  8. There's One Key Difference Between Kids Who Excel at Math and Those Who Don't  (with Noah Smith) 1,610

  9. The Message of Mormonism for Atheists Who Want to Stay Atheists 1,565

  10. The Logarithmic Harmony of Percent Changes and Growth Rates  1,655

  11. On Teaching and Learning Macroeconomics  1,425

  12. The Shards of My Heart 1,287

  13. Why I Write 1,181

  14. Joshua Foer on Deliberate Practice 1,152

  15. There Is No Such Thing as Decreasing Returns to Scale  1,094

  16. Government Purchases vs. Government Spending 1,064

  17. Economics Needs to Tackle All of the Big Questions in the Social Sciences 1,052

  18. The Complete Guide to Getting into an Economics PhD Program 1043

  19. Why Taxes are Bad 1,016

  20. An Agnostic Prayer for Strength 952

  21. Returns to Scale and Imperfect Competition in Market Equilibrium 862

  22. What is the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates Made Of? 845

  23. How to Turn Every Child into a 'Math Person' 783

  24. The Descent—and the Divine Calling—of the Modernists 760

  25. Noah Smith: You Are Already in the Afterlife 748

  26. Two Types of Knowledge: Human Capital and Information 716

  27. Shane Parrish on Deliberate Practice 705

  28. Netflix as an Example of Clay Christensen's 'Disruptive Innovation' 682

  29. The Volcker Shock 637

  30. Expansionist India 619

  31. On Having a Thesis 611

  32. The Most Effective Memory Methods are Difficult—and That's Why They Work 596

  33. Even Central Bankers Need Lessons on the Transmission Mechanism for Negative Interest Rates 565

  34. Student Guest Posts on supplysideliberal.com 561

  35. Godless Religion 539

  36. On Master's Programs in Economics 528

  37. David Pagnucco: The Eurozone and the Impossible Trinity 512

  38. What is a Supply-Side Liberal? 509

  39. David Byrne: De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum 500

  40. Fight the Backlash Against Retirement Saving Nudges: Everyone Benefits When People Save More for Old Age 475

  41. Michael Weisbach: Posters on Finance Job Rumors Need to Clean Up Their Act, Too 460

  42. Robert Shiller: Against the Efficient Markets Theory 439

  43. Noah Smith: Buddha Was Wrong About Desire 425

  44. Cognitive Economics 415

  45. The Message of “Sal Tlay Ka Siti” 404

  46. The Mormon View of Jesus 401

  47. Greg Shill: Does the Fed Have the Legal Authority to Buy Equities? 400

  48. Why GDP Can Grow Forever 378

  49. Will Women Ever Get the Mormon Priesthood? 350

  50. Critical Reading: Apprentice Level 348

  51. Brio in Blog Posts 343

  52. Next Generation Monetary Policy 339

  53. Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Wages: A Debate Between Miles Kimball and Matthew Rognlie 341

  54. How Subordinating Paper Currency to Electronic Money Can End Recessions and End Inflation 324

  55. 18 Misconceptions about Eliminating the Zero Lower Bound 323

  56. Franklin Roosevelt on the Second Industrial Revolution 318

  57. Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy: Full Text 316

  58. The Unavoidability of Faith 307

  59. The Shape of Production: Charles Cobb's and Paul Douglas's Boon to Economics 304

  60. Teleotheism and the Purpose of Life 301

  61. Rodney Stark on the Status of Women in Early Christianity 299

  62. The Deep Magic of Money and the Deeper Magic of the Supply Side 286

  63. Why I Am Not a Neoliberal 284

  64. Why I am a Macroeconomist: Increasing Returns and Unemployment 283

  65. False Advertising for College is Pretty Much the Norm 278

  66. Chris Kimball: Having a Prophet in the Family 256

  67. Miles Moves to the University of Colorado Boulder 246

  68. Hannah Katz: The Pros and Cons of Tipping Culture 244

  69. The Mormon Church Decides to Treat Gay Marriage as Rebellion on a Par with Polygamy 244

  70. Less is More in Mormon Church Meetings 240

  71. Nicholas Kristof: "Where Sweatshops are a Dream" 237

  72. Peter Conti-Brown's Takedown of Danielle DiMartino Booth's Book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" 233

  73. The Mystery of Consciousness 222

  74. Heroes of Science Action Figures 220

  75. Legitimate Power and Authority 213

  76. Marriage—Not for the Faint of Heart 212

  77. Noah Smith: Why Do Americans Like Jews and Dislike Mormons? 211

  78. Matthew Shapiro, Martha Bailey and Tilman Borgers on the Economics Job Market Rumors Website 208

  79. Silvio Gesell's Plan for Negative Nominal Interest Rates 208

  80. An Agnostic Grace 202

  81. Markus Brunnermeier and Yann Koby's "Reversal Interest Rate" 198

  82. International Finance: A Primer 193

  83. The Egocentric Illusion 192

  84. John L. Davidson on Resolving the House Mystery: The Institutional Realities of House Construction 192

  85. Barack Obama: Football as the Best Sports Analogy for Politics 188

  86. Miles Kimball - Google Scholar Citations 187

  87. Restoring American Growth: The Video 187

  88. One of the Biggest Threats to America's Future Has the Easiest Fix 186

  89. The Message of Jesus for Non-Supernaturalists 184

  90. How Albert Einstein Became a Celebrity 184

  91. How the Original Sin of Borrowing in a Foreign Currency Can Reduce the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy for Both the Borrowing and Lending Country 183

  92. Must All Economics Papers Be Doorstoppers? 180

  93. Gather ’round, Children, Here’s How to Heal a Wounded Economy 174

  94. Christian Kimball: Revelation and Satan 171

  95. How and Why to Expand the Nonprofit Sector as a Partial Alternative to Government: A Reader’s Guide 169

  96. Higher Inflation Is Not the Answer 165

  97. Marriage 101 165

  98. Charles Murray on Taking Religion Seriously 163

  99. Marriage 102 162

  100. Odious Wealth: The Outrage is Not So Much Over Inequality but All the Dubious Ways the Rich Got Richer 161

  101. Optimal Monetary Policy: Could the Next Big Idea Come from the Blogosphere? 159

  102. Clay Christensen, Jerome Grossman and Jason Hwang on the Three Basic Types of Business Models 159

  103. Let's Set Half a Percent as the Standard for Statistical Significance 156

  104. Miles's April 9, 2006 Unitarian Universalist Sermon: ‘UU Visions’ 156

  105. Noah Smith—The Fight of the Ages: Pain and Death 152

  106. My Dad 150

  107. How I Became Optimistic 150

  108. An Agnostic Invocation 149

  109. Owen Nie: Monetary Policy in Colonial New York, New Jersey and Delaware 148

  110. Dynamic Map of Europe from 1000 A.D. to 1900 148

  111. Should the U.S. Dollar Be Weak or Strong? 147

  112. The Coming Transformation of Education: Degrees Won’t Matter Anymore, Skills Will 146

  113. Leveling Up: Making the Transition from Poor Country to Rich Country 145

  114. Electronic Money: The Powerpoint File 143

  115. How Conservative Mormon America Avoided the Fate of Conservative White America 143

  116. Michael Huemer's Immigration Parable 139

  117. My Objective Function 138

  118. America's Big Monetary Policy Mistake: How Negative Interest Rates Could Have Stopped the Great Recession in Its Tracks 138

  119. The Swiss National Bank May Need to Cut Its Target Rate Further Now That It Could Get In Trouble with the US If It Keeps Buying So Many Foreign Assets 136

  120. Live: Teleotheism and the Purpose of Life 133

  121. Discounting Government Projects 131

  122. Alexander Trentin Interviews Miles Kimball about Establishing an International Capital Flow Framework 131

  123. How to Handle Worries about the Effect of Negative Interest Rates on Bank Profits with Two-Tiered Interest-on-Reserves Policies 130

  124. Jacob Bastian and Maggie Jones: Do EITC Expansions Pay for Themselves? Effects on Tax Revenue and Public Assistance Spending

  125. The Racist Origins of the Idea of the "Dumb Jock" 130

  126. Andrew Carnegie on Cost-Cutting 129

  127. On the Great Recession 127

  128. Going Negative: The Virtual Fed Funds Rate Target 125

  129. Safe, Legal, Rare and Early 125

  130. Noah Smith: Mom in Hell 122

  131. So What If We Don't Change at All…and Something Magical Just Happens? 121

  132. Noah Smith: Sunni Islam is Failing 119

  133. The Extensive Margin: How to Simultaneously Raise Quality and Lower Tuition at Elite Public Universities 119

  134. Is Nuclear Energy Safe? Well, Which One? 119

  135. Can Taxes Raise GDP? 118

  136. So You Want to Save the World 118

  137. Responding to Joseph Stiglitz on Negative Interest Rates 116

  138. The Litany Against Fear 115

  139. Books on Economics 114

  140. Economist Twitter Stars 113

  141. Q&A: Is Electronic Money the Mark of the Beast? 112

  142. Enabling Deeper Negative Rates by Managing the Side Effects of a Zero Paper Currency Interest Rate: The Video 112

  143. Division of Labor in Track-and-Hook Songwriting 112

  144. When the Output Gap is Zero, But Inflation is Below Target 112

  145. A Conversation with Clint Folsom, Mayor of Superior, Colorado 112

  146. Diana Kimball: Listening Creates Possibilities 111

  147. Inside Mormonism: The Home Teachers Come Over 110

  148. Eric Weinstein: Genius Is Not the Same Thing as Excellence 110

  149. Gabriela D'Souza on Failure in Learning Math 110

  150. Roger Farmer and Miles Kimball on the Value of Sovereign Wealth Funds for Economic Stabilization 110

  151. Eric Schlosser on the Underground Economy 109

  152. The Costs and Benefits of Repealing the Zero Lower Bound...and Then Lowering the Long-Run Inflation Target 109

  153. Facebook Convo on Women in Economics 108

  154. How Increasing Retirement Saving Could Give America More Balanced Trade 108

  155. David Holland on the Mormon Church During the February 3, 2008–January 2, 2018 Monson Administration 108

  156. Rodney Stark’s Contrarian Assessment of the Crusades 107

  157. Negative Rates and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level 107

  158. Wallace Neutrality and Ricardian Neutrality 107

  159. ‘The Hunger Games’ Is Hardly Our Future--It's Already Here 105

  160. Robert Eisler—Stable Money: The Remedy for the Economic World Crisis 104

  161. An Agnostic Prayer for Awareness 103

  162. Manifesto #1: I Am Enough 102

  163. New Mormon Prophet Russell Nelson Shakes Things Up 102

  164. Why Scott Fullwiler Misses the Point in ‘Why Negative Nominal Interest Rates Miss the Point’ 100

  165. How Did Evolution Give Us Religion? 100

  166. Signalling When Everyone Knows about Last-Place Aversion: An Application to Economics Job Market Rumors 100

  167. Fields Medal Winner Maryam Mirzakhani's Slow-Cooked Math 100

  168. Barbara Oakley: How We Should Be Teaching Math 100

  169. Matt Stoller: How Democrats Killed Their Populist Soul 99

  170. Noah Smith: Islam Needs To Separate Church and State 98

  171. Christian Kimball on the Fallibility of Mormon Leaders and on Gay Marriage 97

  172. Robert L. Woodson Sr. on Helping the Poor 96

  173. Oren Cass on the Value of Work 95

  174. What is a Partisan Nonpartisan Blog? 95

  175. Paul Krugman on John Taylor and Admitting Error 94

  176. Annie Atherton: I Tried 7 Different Morning Routines — Here’s What Made Me Happiest (direct link) 94

  177. Christian Kimball: Anger [1], Marriage [2], and the Mormon Church [3] 93

  178. Rodney Stark: Historians Ought to Count—But Often Don’t 91

  179. Selfishness and the Fall of Rome 91

  180. Big Brother Speaks: Christian Kimball on Mitt Romney 91

  181. Why We Want More Jobs 90

The ECB’s Monetary Policy at 20—Massimo Rostagno, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto, Arthur Saint Guilhem and Jonathan Yiangou Defend Negative Rate Policy

The Central Bank of Sweden, the Riskbank, may be raising its rates prematurely because of an overeagerness to exit negative rates. But key players within the European Central Bank have reaffirmed their belief in the virtues of negative rates in a new European Central Bank Working Paper. The Riksbank’s explanation was scant, but the ECB Working Paper “A Tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20” great detail about the authors’ thinking.

In this post, I’ll only give Wall Street Journal author James Mackintosh’s comments on the ECB Working Paper. Here is his precis of the working paper:

… a group of the most senior monetary-policy staff at the European Central Bank published a long-awaited paper robustly defending negative rates. The eye-catching claim: The benefits for the economy would still outweigh the damage even if rates went twice as negative, to minus 1%.

The ECB paper led by Massimo Rostagno, head of the bank’s monetary policy division, insists that negative rates, alongside bond buying, forward guidance and cheap long-term loans to banks, provide multiple benefits.

First, it argues, demonstrating that there is no zero lower bound to rates takes away the fear that central banks are powerless to act when rates hit zero.

Second, negative rates—a charge on commercial bank deposits at the central bank—create a “hot potato” effect. Banks are encouraged to lend out or invest their money to avoid paying the ECB to hold their spare reserves. The banking system as a whole can’t escape the cost of negative rates, since the reserves have to end up back at the ECB in the end. But any individual bank with spare money can hope that if it is used to buy bonds or lent out, the recipient will pay it into an account at a rival, which will then have to take the hit from the ECB.

Third, the research found that cuts to rates when they are negative lower government bond yields more than cuts when they are positive. The biggest effect is on five-year bonds, which heavily affect fixed-rate lending. The explanation is tricky; one possibility that rather undermines the case for negative rates is that investors think things must be really bad for the central bank to try out even deeper negative rates, so expect rates to stay low for a long time. It’s easy for a central bank to cut rates in normal times, so they are usually expected to rebound toward a higher steady state within a few years.

Fourth, the negative rates helped other policies, such as forward guidance and corporate bond purchases, be more effective.

Finally, a model used in the study concludes that banks have made more money with negative rates than they would have if rates hadn’t been cut, and will continue to do so. This seemingly counterintuitive conclusion results because the squeeze on bank margins has been more than offset by rising fees, capital gains and lower provisions for losses than would have been the case.

James Mackintosh also gives a useful list of side effects emphasized by negative rate skeptics. With my numbering added, they are, in his words:

  1. Bank margins are squeezed if they can’t pass on the negative rates to their own depositors;

  2. pension funds and insurers forced by regulators to hold negative-yielding government bonds will find it hard to meet promises to customers; and

  3. the prospect of better-than-free money may encourage financial and housing bubbles.

Let me react to each of these issues.

1. Squeezed bank margins

Squeezed bank margins can be avoided by having the central bank subsidize commercial banks for providing zero rather than negative rates to small household depositors and encouraging them to pass on negative rates commercial and large household depositors. See:

Other mechanisms for subsidizing banks are also available. For example the ECB loans funds to commercial banks at below-market rates.

2. Low rates for pension funds

Here the problem is the use of mild negative rates for long periods of time rather than deep negative rates for short periods of time. (Of course, this requires modifications to paper currency policy. See “How and Why to Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound: A Reader’s Guide.”) Getting back to robust economic growth quickly with deep negative rates then makes it appropriate for a central bank to raise interest rates quickly as the economy recovers.

Note however that even if a central bank quickly returns an economy to the natural level of output and the long-run natural interest rate, that long-run natural interest rate might be lower than pension funds are used to in past decades. This is beyond a central bank’s control and must be addressed by supply-side policies. See:

3. Financial stability concerns

One of the best methods of combatting financial instability coming from house prices is to allow more residential construction—especially residential construction in desirable cities to live and work in. But this policy is beyond the purview of central banks. Most central banks do, however, have a hand in setting capital (equity) requirements, or at least have an influence on those who do. It is my contention that high enough capital requirements can dramatically reduce dangers from financial instability. That is not to say that interest rate policy should pay no attention to financial instability: rates should be raised when risk premia become unusually small and lowered when risk premia become unusually large. See:

Conclusion

I have met several of the authors of the new ECB Working Paper and found them very impressive. Their paper deserves a closer look.

For annotated links to other posts on negative interest rate policy, see:

In Praise of Flavored Sparkling Water

Some people have the intuition that any food or drink that is pleasurable must be bad for health. I would emphasize instead that it is important to find types of food and drink that are pleasurable enough relative to less healthy alternatives that they can help one stay away from the worst foods in the long run.

In the area of food, I continue to think that—even if saturated fat is less healthy than mono-unsaturated fat like that in avocados, olives, or almonds—sugar is much, much, worse for health than saturated fat. Hence, if adding cream or coconut milk into ones diet helps one stay away from sugar, that seems like a good deal. See what I say in “Does Reducing Saturated Fat Reduce Cardiovascular Disease?

Turning to drinks, unfortunately, among pleasurable things, there is evidence for harm to health from the most common nonsugar sweeteners and even for alcohol. See

Fortunately, it has been hard for scientists to find serious downsides to caffeine other than the obvious: interfering with sleep, causing jitters and dependence on caffeine to stay awake. Overall, tea and coffee in both their low-caffeine and (with due caution) their high-caffeine forms are relatively healthy alternatives.

In my view and in my own personal practice, flavored sparkling water is a great way to add variety to add variety to tea, coffee, and straight water or unflavored sparkling water.

When buying flavored sparkling water, it is important to verify from the ingredient list that it contains only carbonated water and flavor essences. That still leaves many brands and many flavors within brands of flavored sparkling water.

Even for the wary, worried about harms someone might be able to find in the future from flavored sparkling water (for example, from the BPA that is commonly used for cans of all sorts), I’ll bet those harms are much smaller than all the other drinks flavored sparkling water helps one be willing to avoid:

Given how healthy flavored sparkling water is, I am heartened to see the dramatic growth in sales of flavored sparkling water. (See the Wall Street Journal graph at the top of this post.) Let me report that many flavors are truly delicious. To someone like me, whose taste buds have adjusted to being off of sugar, they taste quite sweet even though they have no sweetener in them.

For those who are new to flavored sparkling water, let me showcase my favorite flavors. (By and large, my family agrees with me on these favorites. I’ll note the few exceptions.)

key lime.png
apricot.png

Coconut La Croix has many fans: see this Twitter thread. The comparison to cream soda helped me appreciate this flavor. It deserves its place among my favorites.

orange mango arrowhead.jpeg

Not everyone in my family likes Cucumber Mint, but I find it refreshing, especially when I am thirsty:

Opinions in my family also differ about Lemon, but I like it.

Bubly is a less expensive brand. The Peach Bubly is a decent flavor, and it has many flavors that only modestly worse substitutes for the corresponding La Croix or Good & Gather flavors.

For me one great boon of flavored sparkling water is that the acidity of even citrus flavors is low enough that I OK despite sensitive teeth that make me have to avoid citrus in other forms. Also, as near as I can tell, they don’t have food colors in them, which reduces my worry about stains if I spill.

One of the difficulties of nutrition research is that both natural and experimental variation often involve replacing one type of food or drink with another, meaning that one is looking at the combined effect of eating or drinking one thing and not eating or drinking another thing. Switching to flavored sparkling water from many, many other drinks is bound to be a big improvement. Switching to flavored sparkling water from straight water or unflavored sparkling water is likely to be a small worsening, in itself. But I also find that flavored sparkling water makes it more pleasant to fast—to not eat for a period of time. And fasting has large health benefits.

For annotated links to other posts on diet and health, see:

The Federalist Papers #4 A: The States Must Be Prepared to Defend against Aggression by Other Nations

In The Federalist Papers #3, John Jay argues that, united, the states are less likely to start or give just cause for a war. (See The Federalist Papers #3: United, the 13 States are Less Likely to Stumble into War.) In The Federalist Papers #4, John Jay argues that, united, the states will be better able to fend off unjust aggression. The first half argues that unjust aggression is a genuine danger:

“… it need not be observed that there are PRETENDED as well as just causes of war. … nations in general will make war whenever they have a prospect of getting anything by it; …”

The relevance of this observation is backed up by these arguments:

  1. Monarchs can have narrowly selfish reasons to start a war.

  2. Nations can be tempted to use a war to gain advantage in a commercial rivalry. For example:

    • Fishing

    • Shipping

  3. Nations may view the preservation of monopolies and exclusive commercial rights as a matter of national interest and may not see the justice of the freer trade American merchants would like. For example,

    • Trade with India and China

    • Trade along the Mississippi River

    • Trade with Canada

Here is how John Jay makes this argument in detail:

|| Federalist No. 4 || 

The Same Subject Continued: Concerning Dangers From Foreign Force and Influence
For the Independent Journal.

Author: John Jay

To the People of the State of New York:

MY LAST paper assigned several reasons why the safety of the people would be best secured by union against the danger it may be exposed to by JUST causes of war given to other nations; and those reasons show that such causes would not only be more rarely given, but would also be more easily accommodated, by a national government than either by the State governments or the proposed little confederacies.

But the safety of the people of America against dangers from FOREIGN force depends not only on their forbearing to give JUST causes of war to other nations, but also on their placing and continuing themselves in such a situation as not to INVITE hostility or insult; for it need not be observed that there are PRETENDED as well as just causes of war.

It is too true, however disgraceful it may be to human nature, that nations in general will make war whenever they have a prospect of getting anything by it; nay, absolute monarchs will often make war when their nations are to get nothing by it, but for the purposes and objects merely personal, such as thirst for military glory, revenge for personal affronts, ambition, or private compacts to aggrandize or support their particular families or partisans. These and a variety of other motives, which affect only the mind of the sovereign, often lead him to engage in wars not sanctified by justice or the voice and interests of his people. But, independent of these inducements to war, which are more prevalent in absolute monarchies, but which well deserve our attention, there are others which affect nations as often as kings; and some of them will on examination be found to grow out of our relative situation and circumstances.

With France and with Britain we are rivals in the fisheries, and can supply their markets cheaper than they can themselves, notwithstanding any efforts to prevent it by bounties on their own or duties on foreign fish.

With them and with most other European nations we are rivals in navigation and the carrying trade; and we shall deceive ourselves if we suppose that any of them will rejoice to see it flourish; for, as our carrying trade cannot increase without in some degree diminishing theirs, it is more their interest, and will be more their policy, to restrain than to promote it.

In the trade to China and India, we interfere with more than one nation, inasmuch as it enables us to partake in advantages which they had in a manner monopolized, and as we thereby supply ourselves with commodities which we used to purchase from them.

The extension of our own commerce in our own vessels cannot give pleasure to any nations who possess territories on or near this continent, because the cheapness and excellence of our productions, added to the circumstance of vicinity, and the enterprise and address of our merchants and navigators, will give us a greater share in the advantages which those territories afford, than consists with the wishes or policy of their respective sovereigns.

Spain thinks it convenient to shut the Mississippi against us on the one side, and Britain excludes us from the Saint Lawrence on the other; nor will either of them permit the other waters which are between them and us to become the means of mutual intercourse and traffic.

From these and such like considerations, which might, if consistent with prudence, be more amplified and detailed, it is easy to see that jealousies and uneasinesses may gradually slide into the minds and cabinets of other nations, and that we are not to expect that they should regard our advancement in union, in power and consequence by land and by sea, with an eye of indifference and composure.

Here are links to my other posts on The Federalist Papers so far:

What to Call the Very Rich: Millionaires, Vranaires, Okuaires, Billionaires and Lakhlakhaires

Take a look at this exchange between Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg in a recent Democratic Primary debate:

“So, the mayor just recently had a fundraiser that was held in a wine cave, full of crystals, and served $900-a-bottle wine,” she said. “Think about who comes to that.” 

“We made the decision many years ago that rich people in smoke-filled rooms would not pick the next president of the United States,” she added. “Billionaires in wine caves should not pick the next president of the United States.”

Buttigieg pushed back, noting (as he has before) that he has the smallest net worth of anyone running. “I’m literally the only person on this stage who is not a millionaire or a billionaire,” he said. By Warren’s logic, Buttigieg continued, Warren herself was part of the problem.

“Now, supposing you went home and felt the holiday spirit—I know this isn’t likely, but stay with me—and decided to go on peteforamerica.com and gave the maximum allowable by law, $2,800,” he said. “Would that pollute my campaign because it came from a wealthy person?”

Elizabeth Warren’s is handicapped in this exchange by two facts. First, inflation over the past century makes it so “millionaire” doesn’t mean as much as it once did—and “multimillionaire” could mean someone who has $2 million, which also doesn’t mean as much as it once did. Second, English is missing convenient, noncompound words for many of the relevant powers of ten. If one thinks that while a million dollars makes one rich, that it takes ten million dollars to make someone filthy rich, talking of ten-millionaires not only lacks punch, it is confusing to those who can’t here the different between ten millionaires and ten-millionaires.

Fortunately, Wikipedia provides articles on many of the key powers of ten that detail names for these powers of ten in other languages that can be pressed into service. (These Wikipedia articles also give many fun facts about numbers in between these powers of ten.) Let me give the Wikipedia links and the relevant passages Wikipedia bolding with my own:

100,000

In IndiaPakistan and South Asia, one hundred thousand is called a lakh, and is written as 1,00,000. The ThaiLaoKhmer and Vietnamese languages also have separate words for this number: แสน, ແສນ, សែន [saen] and ức respectively. The Malagasy word is hetsy[1].

10,000,000:

In South Asia, it is known as the crore.

In Cyrillic numerals, it is known as the vran (вран - raven).

100,000,000:

East Asian languages treat 100,000,000 as a counting unit, significant as the square of a myriad, also a counting unit. In Chinese, Korean, and Japanese respectively it is (simplified Chinese: 亿; traditional Chinese: 億; pinyin) (or Chinese: 萬萬; pinyinwànwàn in ancient texts), eok (억/億) and oku (億). These languages do not have single words for a thousand to the second, third, fifth power, etc.

(“Million, “billion” and “trillion” are perfectly good words, and in recent years the British usage for “billion” and “trillion” have begun converging toward the American usage. For 10,000, I have always liked the word “myriad.”)

Making some editorial choices, let me then propose the following names, including the traditional ones:

$1,000,000: millionaire

$10,000,000: vranaire

$100,000,000: okuaire

$1,000,000,000: billionaire

$10,000,000,000: lakhlakhaire

$100,000,000,000: hundred-billionaire

$1,000,000,000,000: trillionaire

Notes on roads taken and not taken:

  • “croraire” would be hard to pronounce; hence I prefer “vranaire.”

  • I have spent a lot of time in Japan, so I am drawn to the Japanese word for 100,000,000.

  • Wikipedia gives no single noncompound word for 10,000,000,000. But using “lakh,” it is possible to make a compound term that is only two syllables and is quite distinctive and memorable. (10,000,000,000 = 100,000 x 100,000. Here is a link for the pronunciation of lakh.

  • I am at a loss to find a noncompound word for 100,000,000,000, but at least “hundred-billionaires” is distinguishable in speech from “one hundred billionaires.”

If you want to know what these various categories of rich folks are like, I highly recommend the book Richistan, by Robert Frank, about what it is like to be very rich. It makes a difference which power of ten one has exceeded! It is very, very different to be an okuaire than to be a vranaire. A vranaire has enough to retire early in comfort and have a nice house in any city, but having almost anything one selfishly desires that money can buy requires being at least an okuaire. And it is not hard to have philanthropic desires or desires for power to affect human history that would easily require being a billionaire or lakhlakhaire.

As for millionaires, a tenured economics professor who has been required by their college or university to save 15% of their salary for retirement should at a certain age be a millionaire on paper unless they have had bad luck.

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